Tag Archives: lies

Europe Not Overrun by Muslims

BBC News online has an article today about a YouTube video that has been viewed more than ten million times, and is a bunch of hooey.

Below is the entire article.

This seven-and-a-half minute video “Muslim Demographics” uses slick graphics, punctuated with dramatic music, to make some surprising claims, asserting that much of Europe will be majority Muslim in just a few decades. It says that in the past two decades, 90% of all population growth in Europe has been Muslim immigration.

In France, it says 30% of those aged 20 and younger are Muslim, with the birth rate for Muslim families massively exceeding that across all families. It says France will be an Islamic Republic within 39 years.

In the UK it says the Muslim population has risen 30-fold since the beginning of the 1980s.

But are any of the video’s statistics true?

Of the video’s claims that 90% of Europe’s population growth since 1990 is due Islamic immigration, only a fragment is true. Immigration is the main driver of population growth according to EU statistics and in some exceptional years, 90% of population growth has been down to net inward migration.

But that includes all immigrants coming into the EU, not just Muslims.

It is the claims made about individual countries that are most striking. The video says that a typical French family has 1.8 children but that French Muslim families have 8.1 children.

No source is given for this information and the French government doesn’t collect statistics by religion. So it is impossible to say what the precise fertility rates among different religious groups in France are.

But no country on earth has such a high fertility rate and in Algeria and Morocco, the two nations which send the largest numbers of Muslim immigrants to France, the fertility rate is 2.38, according to the UN’s 2008 figures.

In the Netherlands, according to the video, half of all newborns are Muslim, and in 15 years half the population will be Muslim.

But the Dutch office of statistics estimates that Muslims make up only 5% of the population. For Dutch Muslim women to produce half the nation’s babies, they would have to be giving birth at at least 14 times the rate of their non-Muslim neighbours.

Is 25% of the Belgian population Muslim, as the video asserts? No. The Belgian office of statistics points to a 2008 study which suggests the real figure is just 6%.

The video also states that the Muslim population of the UK has grown 30-fold in the past 30 years. They get the figure by estimating that the British Muslim population has risen from 82,000 to 2.5 million.

The firm data is in the 2001 census, which counted close to 1.6 million Muslims in England and Wales. That number will have risen since 2001 so 2.5 million is not impossible. The 2011 census will be looked to for clarification.

However, according to Dr Andrew Hinde, a demographer at Southampton University, the 82,000 figure is a gross under-estimate. “If you take the 1981 census there was no question asked on religious belief,” he says, “but if you take those born in Pakistan and Bangladesh as a minimum estimate of the number of Muslims in 1981, it’s about 300,000.”

That would mean the growth rate has been significantly slower than the video suggests.

But the video doesn’t just rely on statistics, it also uses an official Government statement. It quotes it as saying: “The fall in German population can no longer be stopped. Its downward spiral is no longer reversible. It will be a Muslim state by the year 2050.”

The statement in question was made by then vice-president of the Federal Statistics Office, Walter Radermacher, who is now chief statistician of the European Union. He says that while it is true he said Germany’s population was in decline, the last part of the quote [in italics] is just an invention. He said nothing about Germany becoming a Muslim state.

“The quotation which reads as if the German government believed that Germany will become a Muslim state is simply not true,” he says. “There is no source which can be quoted that the German government has published such an expression or opinion.”

Inexact science

The video also claims the German government believes the number of Muslims in Europe will double to 104 million.

Mr Radermacher adds: “That is not true. The German government does not believe that the Muslim population will double in the next 40 or 50 years. There are no reliable sources that give a proof for that assumption.”

Population projection is an inexact science. No-one knows how many Muslims will be living in Europe or anywhere else by 2050. The current trends suggest that by 2050 Europe will have a bigger proportion of Muslims, although nothing like the level suggested in the video.

But the big assumption here is current trends. Levels of immigration and fertility change over time.

It is certainly true that immigrant communities often have higher fertility rates but over time these usually fall into line with the indigenous population. This might not happen with Muslim immigrants. But nobody can know and that’s why, according to Dr Hinde, it is so hard to guess the future.

“In the 1930s there were population projections made of the UK that by the end of the century the UK population would be 20 million. Well, it turned out to be 50 million.

“That’s how far out you can get when you’re moving 40 or 50 years down the line and not taking into account the uncertainty.”

Published in 1994. England not on her knees yet.

Published in 1994. England not on her knees yet.

But scary, ooooooh.

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UPDATE: In reality, Muslims make up 3 percent of the population of Europe, and most of them oppose sharia law.

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Filed under arabist, bigoted idiots, Islamic relations

Smear Machine Fail

Please check out this post at MyRightWingDad.net.

It is a right-wing email forward which begins with a tale told in outrage of a little Iranian boy who was caught stealing bread and sentenced to lose (or “loose”–what would a right-wing forward be without misspelling?) the use of his arm by crushing. Then in has a series of photos starting with a very casual-looking group of folks in civilian clothing looking on while the boy lies down in the street, extending his arm in front of the car’s left front tire. In the third and fourth photos the boy is gritting his teeth as the car passes over, and in the fifth and sixth photos his face is blocked by the tire. The we get the caption, “Spread this example of peace and love of Islam to your friends!!”

What monsters those Muslims are! Except what the pictures really depict is the act of some street performers. It’s on Snopes (the Urban Legends Reference Page), but since their site is kind of annoying, here’s a link to the same info at About.com.

Comments: The preceding images are apparently authentic — they were published as such in 2005 on the Iranian news Web site Peyke Iran, at any rate — but the accompanying caption doesn’t jibe with the original report and was clearly fabricated after the fact.

According to a Peyke Iran spokesperson who corrected the record last November in a note posted on Little Green Footballs, the young boy whose arm was run over was not being punished for a crime. He was part of a “Maareke giry” or street magic act and allegedly performed the stunt for money (note the gentleman speaking into a microphone in image #1). The seventh and eighth pictures in the series, which appear to show the child shaken but otherwise unharmed after the ordeal, were omitted from the email flier but can still be viewed on Peykeiran.com (where all the images are attributed to photographer Siamak Yari).

You can also vote there on whether you thought it was plausible that these photos depicted an act of Islamic justice.

Peykeiran.com is in Farsi and I don’t read Farsi, so I can’t find the photos to link you to them.

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Filed under bigoted idiots