Europe Not Overrun by Muslims

BBC News online has an article today about a YouTube video that has been viewed more than ten million times, and is a bunch of hooey.

Below is the entire article.

This seven-and-a-half minute video “Muslim Demographics” uses slick graphics, punctuated with dramatic music, to make some surprising claims, asserting that much of Europe will be majority Muslim in just a few decades. It says that in the past two decades, 90% of all population growth in Europe has been Muslim immigration.

In France, it says 30% of those aged 20 and younger are Muslim, with the birth rate for Muslim families massively exceeding that across all families. It says France will be an Islamic Republic within 39 years.

In the UK it says the Muslim population has risen 30-fold since the beginning of the 1980s.

But are any of the video’s statistics true?

Of the video’s claims that 90% of Europe’s population growth since 1990 is due Islamic immigration, only a fragment is true. Immigration is the main driver of population growth according to EU statistics and in some exceptional years, 90% of population growth has been down to net inward migration.

But that includes all immigrants coming into the EU, not just Muslims.

It is the claims made about individual countries that are most striking. The video says that a typical French family has 1.8 children but that French Muslim families have 8.1 children.

No source is given for this information and the French government doesn’t collect statistics by religion. So it is impossible to say what the precise fertility rates among different religious groups in France are.

But no country on earth has such a high fertility rate and in Algeria and Morocco, the two nations which send the largest numbers of Muslim immigrants to France, the fertility rate is 2.38, according to the UN’s 2008 figures.

In the Netherlands, according to the video, half of all newborns are Muslim, and in 15 years half the population will be Muslim.

But the Dutch office of statistics estimates that Muslims make up only 5% of the population. For Dutch Muslim women to produce half the nation’s babies, they would have to be giving birth at at least 14 times the rate of their non-Muslim neighbours.

Is 25% of the Belgian population Muslim, as the video asserts? No. The Belgian office of statistics points to a 2008 study which suggests the real figure is just 6%.

The video also states that the Muslim population of the UK has grown 30-fold in the past 30 years. They get the figure by estimating that the British Muslim population has risen from 82,000 to 2.5 million.

The firm data is in the 2001 census, which counted close to 1.6 million Muslims in England and Wales. That number will have risen since 2001 so 2.5 million is not impossible. The 2011 census will be looked to for clarification.

However, according to Dr Andrew Hinde, a demographer at Southampton University, the 82,000 figure is a gross under-estimate. “If you take the 1981 census there was no question asked on religious belief,” he says, “but if you take those born in Pakistan and Bangladesh as a minimum estimate of the number of Muslims in 1981, it’s about 300,000.”

That would mean the growth rate has been significantly slower than the video suggests.

But the video doesn’t just rely on statistics, it also uses an official Government statement. It quotes it as saying: “The fall in German population can no longer be stopped. Its downward spiral is no longer reversible. It will be a Muslim state by the year 2050.”

The statement in question was made by then vice-president of the Federal Statistics Office, Walter Radermacher, who is now chief statistician of the European Union. He says that while it is true he said Germany’s population was in decline, the last part of the quote [in italics] is just an invention. He said nothing about Germany becoming a Muslim state.

“The quotation which reads as if the German government believed that Germany will become a Muslim state is simply not true,” he says. “There is no source which can be quoted that the German government has published such an expression or opinion.”

Inexact science

The video also claims the German government believes the number of Muslims in Europe will double to 104 million.

Mr Radermacher adds: “That is not true. The German government does not believe that the Muslim population will double in the next 40 or 50 years. There are no reliable sources that give a proof for that assumption.”

Population projection is an inexact science. No-one knows how many Muslims will be living in Europe or anywhere else by 2050. The current trends suggest that by 2050 Europe will have a bigger proportion of Muslims, although nothing like the level suggested in the video.

But the big assumption here is current trends. Levels of immigration and fertility change over time.

It is certainly true that immigrant communities often have higher fertility rates but over time these usually fall into line with the indigenous population. This might not happen with Muslim immigrants. But nobody can know and that’s why, according to Dr Hinde, it is so hard to guess the future.

“In the 1930s there were population projections made of the UK that by the end of the century the UK population would be 20 million. Well, it turned out to be 50 million.

“That’s how far out you can get when you’re moving 40 or 50 years down the line and not taking into account the uncertainty.”

Published in 1994. England not on her knees yet.

Published in 1994. England not on her knees yet.

But scary, ooooooh.

——————–
UPDATE: In reality, Muslims make up 3 percent of the population of Europe, and most of them oppose sharia law.

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4 Comments

Filed under arabist, bigoted idiots, Islamic relations

4 responses to “Europe Not Overrun by Muslims

  1. My favorite bullshitter on the whole “Europe is turning Islamic” theme is Mark Steyn, who claims that the Muslims are overbreeding and overrunning Europe because they’re polygamists. Um, not in Europe OR North America, where the laws of the land are clear and polygamy is forbidden. And where Muslims, unlike fundie-Mormons, generally abide by the laws of the land. I have yet to hear Steyn screeching about how fundie-Mormons are threatening to overrun Canada, but then again, they’re very very white. And they over-reproduce quite grossly (a dozen children per “plural wife” being the norm), thus meeting Steyn’s white-supremacist approval. I guess that it’s not religion or culture, but skin color, that ultimately makes all the difference.

    And of course, this doesn’t even begin to touch on the fact that immigrants’ children tend to assimilate more than their parents, particularly on matters of love, marriage and childbearing. Prophets of “we’re gonna become an Islamic republic” doom always seem to forget that. Probably because facts tend to get in the way of a good horror story.

    Funniest of all, though, is this: All these proponents of the notion of a culture-war between Islam and “Western values” are, on the one hand, convinced that globalization will win the day and “Western values” will reign supreme. But on the other, they feel incredibly threatened by Islam, which is supposedly fated to be the loser. Cognitive dissonance: They haz it.

    • Ha! Out of curiosity, I googled “Mark Steyn Mormon” and then “Mark Steyn Muslim.” What a difference!

      I do like it when people’s names reveal their character. I can easily remember that Mark Steyn is a stain.

  2. Briton

    In the UK, the burqa should be banned. If person lives or visits a muslim state, that person is required by law to behave and dress according to their beliefs. If a muslim(or any other faith) chooses to live in Europe, or any other non muslim state, they should likewise be required to adapt to that country’s culture. No one is forced to live here. They can always leave and live in a muslim state.

    • filthy kafur

      I agree mate….completely. …and say what you want….muslims ARE dominating the uk..the government is shit scared of them, we have laws to protect Islam…its evil, and they ARE trying to take our land (as they always have)

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